Memory spot prices rose broadly in February 2026, with NAND flash wafer costs leading the way, according to DigiTimes market data compiled this month. Amidst the report of specific increases, the article warns that the increasing gap between demand and supply of memory is driving "rapid" spot price increases and procurement capital pressures, which, if continued, could lead to an "industry cycle collapse."
DDR4 posted more mixed results, with the 16Gb (2Gx8) variant holding nearly flat, rising just 0.26% to $78.10, while the 8Gb (1Gx8) gained 6.8% to $33. DDR3 4Gb (512Mx8) chips rose 7.5% to $5.70. The slower DDR4 gains reflect a moderation from the 20-30% monthly increases seen across DRAM products in January, though market DigiTimes says this pullback is “partly seasonal rather than a sign of easing structural pressure.”
The February spot data comes against a backdrop of sharply higher contract price forecasts, with TrendForce revising its Q1 2026 conventional DRAM contract price outlook upward in early February, raising its estimate from a prior 55-60% quarter-over-quarter increase to 90-95%. PC DRAM is now projected to more than double quarter-over-quarter, which TrendForce described as a new quarterly record. Meanwhile, NAND flash contract prices are forecast to rise 55-60% QoQ, also revised up from an earlier 33-38% estimate.
We’re all aware at this point that it’s AI infrastructure that’s driving these increases, having continued to pull memory capacity toward server DRAM and high-bandwidth memory, leaving conventional DRAM and consumer NAND segments undersupplied. North American cloud service providers have been pulling forward orders since late 2025, locking in allocations and pushing other buyers down the priority queue. TrendForce noted that even tier-1 PC OEMs with secured supplier allocations have seen inventory levels decline.
On the NAND side, the February spot jump extends a troubling, longer-term trend. According to DigiTimes, which cited ChinaFlashMarket data, 1Tb QLC/TLC flash wafer prices have roughly tripled since October 2025, with 512Gb TLC prices up nearly fivefold over the same period. This is because suppliers have been redirecting capacity toward enterprise SSDs, where margins are higher, limiting wafer availability for module makers and sustaining upward pressure across the category.
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