A 130% surge in combined DRAM and SSD prices by the end of 2026 will push PC prices up 17% compared to 2025 levels and wipe out the sub-$500 PC market entirely by 2028, according to a forecast published by research Company Gartner during February 26. The price shock will drive global PC shipments down 10.4% this year versus 2025, the steepest annual contraction in over a decade, as consumers and businesses hold onto existing hardware rather than upgrade.
- AI data centers are consuming the global inventory of memory and storage.
- Semiconductor shortages impact the automotive sector during the intensifying Nexperia and DRAM crisis.
- Samsung and SK hynix decrease the duration of memory agreements as control over pricing reverts to the manufacturers.
- Memory producers are projected to generate $551 billion through the AI surge.
Such a significant rise eliminates the capacity of sellers to offset expenses, rendering low-profit basic laptops unsustainable. Eventually, we anticipate the sub-$500 entry-level PC market will vanish by 2028," stated Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner.
Gartner formerly estimated that AI PCs would achieve a 50% market share prior to the decade's conclusion, though increasing memory costs for high-end equipment will additionally delay that target until 2028. AI PCs, of course, require more onboard memory to run local inference workloads, making them especially exposed to DRAM cost increases.
Extended replacement periods will result immediately from increased costs, and Gartner indicates that PC lifespans will grow by 15% for corporate purchasers and 20% for individual users through the conclusion of 2026, a development it mentioned will cause apprehension. About security vulnerabilities on aging hardware.
In the PC sector, buying interest will steadily focus on the high-tier segment, where manufacturers possess sufficient margins to handle rising part costs without undermining their financial returns. Gartner advised vendors to accept unit volume decline rather than cut prices to chase budget buyers. "Overall, device vendors and channels face a critical window in the first half of 2026 to optimize pricing and protect margins before component inflation compresses profitability from the second quarter onwards," Atwal Said.
The forecast covers smartphones as well, where shipments are projected to fall 8.4% this year. Gartner projected that entry-level smartphone shoppers will leave the marketplace five times more quickly than high-end purchasers in 2026 as escalating expenses drive individuals toward reconditioned or pre-owned substitutes.
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