Memory prices have begun shifting on an hourly basis as the AI-driven shortage intensifies, according to a DigiTimes report published today, with semiconductor industry insiders warning that smaller firms unable to place immediate orders with upfront payment risk sharply higher quotes within minutes. The report describes a market now split between roughly 100 top-tier buyers with the leverage to secure supply and more than 190,000 small and mid-size enterprises fighting over what remains.
The report says that cloud service providers, leading automakers, and smartphone giants Apple and Samsung hold enough financial clout to resist price hikes and maintain priority allocation from memory manufacturers. Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron cannot afford to jeopardize those relationships, so these large customers get served first, while also increasingly requiring prepayment or cash transactions before confirming orders — terms that smaller firms with little bargaining power will struggle with.
According to DigiTimes, these companies began struggling to absorb soaring memory costs in the second half of 2025. As prices continued climbing into 2026, some have started revising demand forecasts downward in what amounts to a "cut losses to survive" strategy. That approach is expected to spread as high prices persist, directly reducing overall market demand for memory.
Last month, TrendForce revised its Q1 2026 DRAM contract price forecast upward to a 90-95% quarter-over-quarter increase, with NAND flash up 55-60% over the same period. A separate DigiTimes report published today indicates that DRAM prices could surge a further 70% in Q2 2026, while research firm IDC has warned the shortage could persist well into 2027.
HP disclosed last month that DRAM now accounts for 35% of its PC build cost, up from between 15% and 18% a quarter earlier. Meanwhile, Gartner projects PC shipments will drop more than 10% in 2026, and smartphone shipments will fall roughly 8%, both driven by memory costs. IDC expects white-box and lower-tier vendors, including DIY system builders, to bear the heaviest burden.
All this raises a question about what happens next if enough SMEs exit the market because they can’t afford the premiums. If smaller buyers collectively pull back, tight capacity could soon become oversupply, potentially exposing the shortage as “illusory,” says DigiTimes.
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