Over 80% of companies report no productivity gains from AI so far despite billions in investment, survey suggests — 6,000 executives also reveal 1/3 of leaders use AI, but only for 90 minutes a week
AI isn't having a huge impact on productivity yet, but hopes are still high
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AI is the buzzword of the era, and, much like the enthusiasm of the early dot-com years, billions of dollars worth of investment is being plowed into tools for workers aimed at improving productivity and cutting employment costs. Unfortunately, a new survey of over 6,000 executives from firms across Europe and the US shows that the majority believe AI has had little impact on their business operations so far.
The survey, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (h/t Fortune), reveals the disparity between expectation and reality. While 70% of the businesses questioned were actively using AI, over 80% of them report no impact on company productivity or on employment.
That’s despite a belief among the majority of those questioned that AI will boost productivity by 1.4%, reduce headcount by 0.7%, and increase output by 0.8% over the next three years. Among the executives themselves, a third of those surveyed reported using AI in the workplace, but the usage amounted to only 1.5 hours per week on average. A quarter of those surveyed didn’t use AI at all – at least, not yet.
The contrast between the adoption of AI and its impact on business is an interesting callback to the challenges of decades past, where the introduction of the microcomputer radically changed how businesses operated. The so-called Solow’s productivity paradox, named after the economist who spotted the trend, saw that the extra admin caused by information overload created by computers actually slowed productivity among workers between the 1970s and 1980s. Productivity growth was steady at 2.9% between 1948 to 1973, but dropped to 1.1% afterwards, with improvements not seen again until the late 1990s and early 2000s. Similarly, a recent AI survey revealed that AI usage could actually increase burnout in employees.
Regardless, AI is continuing to prove to be an epoch-making disruptive technology that the executive class has firmly embraced, with AI firms capturing 61% of global venture capital investment in 2025, totalling $258.7 billion. Meanwhile, companies like Microsoft continue to go all-in on AI, with Microsoft's AI boss believing the technology can replace all white-collar jobs within 18 months.
The contradiction – and optimism – among execs proves that AI in the workplace is firmly entrenched, but only time will tell as to whether it has the positive impact that they, and the economy on the whole, will be hoping for.
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lejeczek It is going to be Biblical - like a flood - will wipe out ~90% of their business, when it bursts.Reply
All that big AI shenanigans - they'll be gone with the wind but also hardware manufacturers with regards to consumer market, in next ~4 yrs - I think they know it, secretly, so they shout: buy! Buy now! -
DS426 Those are pretty dismal numbers for early 2026 -- I actually expected a little better.Reply
ROI kaputt. -
Marlin1975 Replylejeczek said:It is going to be Biblical - like a flood - will wipe out ~90% of their business, when it bursts.
All that big AI shenanigans - they'll be gone with the wind but also hardware manufacturers with regards to consumer market, in next ~4 yrs - I think they know it, secretly, so they shout: buy! Buy now!
And yet they are still doubling down expanding, buying all the memory/gpus that can get, and even taking out large billion dollar loans to pay for it.
So all the large banks are deeply tied into this mess. So this will be hugh when it pops.
Only question is do they get a bail out? -
ejolson I think short-term return-on-investment expectations among decision makers at major corporations is a fundamental problem much bigger than AI.Reply
At the same time, I want my prices back on RAM and Flash. -
King_V Color me unsurprised.Reply
Don't get me wrong, early on, I might've wondered at the possibilities. But, the over-hype, the AI everywhere, the frenzy, turning it into a buzzword so overused that it's worse than an annoying song that gets played everywhere you turn, it almost feels like desperation.